时光预言机i
时光预言机i|10月 22, 2026 12:10
After Tesla's Q3 financial report was released, the market gave the most direct reaction, pulling up and then quickly rebounding. -This financial report: There are highlights, but not perfect Tesla Q3 Core Data: Revenue: $28.046 billion GAAP gross profit margin: 19.6% Operating profit: 718 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 56% GAAP net profit: $787 million, a year-on-year decrease of 43% Adjusted EPS: 0.48 USD Free cash flow: 1.531 billion US dollars On the positive side, the gross profit margin has improved, the adjusted EPS is better than market expectations, and the free cash flow remains positive. But the problem is equally obvious: Revenue growth is limited, and operating profit and net profit are still under pressure. This indicates that Tesla's business situation has not improved comprehensively, and the profitability of the automotive business and whether AI investment can be converted into actual profits are still the focus of market attention. 2、 Why did the financial report meet expectations but the stock price actually fell? There is a saying in the trading market: Stock price trading is not about the past, but about the future. When a company's performance meets expectations, it does not necessarily mean that its stock price will rise. If the market has already factored in positive news in advance, or if investors have higher expectations for future growth, then a financial report that meets expectations may not be enough to drive the stock price up further. For Tesla, the market's true concern is no longer just car sales. But rather Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus humanoid robots, and AI infrastructure investment, whether they can ultimately generate sustainable revenue and profits. The vast future space does not mean that there is no pressure on the current valuation. 3、 What is truly worth paying attention to is the return on investment of AI At present, there is an important divergence in the AI industry chain: The demand for AI remains strong, but how much return can huge capital expenditures create? For the semiconductor sector, the logic is the same. NVIDIA AMD、 Although both storage chip and semiconductor equipment companies are related to the AI industry chain, their orders, profits, and valuations are not exactly the same. If AI investment continues to grow and the profits of related enterprises continue to be realized, then the sector is expected to receive support. But if capital expenditures continue to increase and profit growth does not keep up with market expectations, overvalued technology stocks may face adjustments. So, we cannot only focus on the long-term prospects of AI, but also pay attention to the speed of commercialization. TSLA looks at profitability, valuation, and market sentiment in the short term, and AI commercialization in the medium to long term. At present, the focus is on the price of 365. If you hold it for the long term, 320-290 is a very good buying range Unfortunately, my point prediction was incorrect
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