**[Nomura Warns AI Credit Risks Approaching Dot-Com Bubble and Lehman Crisis, Oil Prices as Key Variable]** BlockBeats News, October 22: Nomura Securities strategist Naka Matsuzawa warned in a report released today that the current credit risks of U.S. tech companies and French sovereign credit pressures bear similarities to the market environment before the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the Lehman crisis in 2008. His "Decade Credit Cycle" framework indicates that approximately 1 to 2 years after the second round of historical credit shocks, a third round of shocks that could trigger an economic recession often occurs. The report highlights that the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 LTCM crisis, and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and Bear Stearns crisis all belong to the second round of shocks, which were subsequently followed by the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the Lehman crisis. Previously, the Federal Reserve was able to alleviate credit pressures by pausing rate hikes or cutting rates, but current inflation and rising oil prices may limit its policy options. Nomura believes that oil price trends will determine whether risks escalate further. If oil price increases are primarily driven by economic overheating, central banks will face a stagflation dilemma of coexisting inflation and credit risks, making it difficult to address the crisis through rate cuts. However, if the increases are mainly driven by geopolitical factors, the Federal Reserve may still adjust its policies to prevent localized credit shocks from evolving into systemic crises. The report also notes that while U.S. tech company CDS spreads have narrowed somewhat, the widening spreads between French and German government bonds reflect that market credit pressures have not yet subsided. [Original Link]