Before the 2022 midterm elections, inflation surged to a 40 year high, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, and the US stock market plummeted by over 30%. The dissatisfaction with the ruling Biden and Democratic Party in the United States was very high, and the "Republican Red Wave" swept across the country. At that time, the pre election market believed that the Republican Party would sweep through, but in the end, the Republican Party only won the House of Representatives. The ruling Democratic Party not only retained the Senate but also gained an advantage in expanding the number of senators. Before the 26 year mid-term election, because of the high oil price and the rebound of inflation in the Iran war, the domestic support rate for Trump was very high, and the momentum of "Democratic Blue Wave" was booming. It was predicted that the Democratic Party would sweep away the two houses of parliament. Comparing the situation before this year's election with 22 cases, does it reveal a shift in attack and defense. What insights do we have from the 22 year 'Republican Red Wave' to a draw regarding the results of the midterm elections? That is a nationwide wave of momentum, and in elections, especially midterm elections, it is a state by state battle. The key to this year's election is the competition for the Senate, which is also based on the results of a few key states. The total number of seats to be re elected in the Senate during the midterm elections is 35, including 22 Republican seats, 13 Democratic seats, and 0 independent seats (currently, both independent members are allied with the Democratic Party and are not within the scope of this re-election) The current overall structure of the Senate is approximately 53 seats for the Republican Party and 47 seats for the Democratic Party caucus (including 2 independent members). Therefore, this year the Republican Party needs to defend more seats, while the Democratic Party needs a net increase of about 4 seats to regain the majority (if the state defended by the Democratic Party loses, it will need a net increase of one more seat). Whether the Democratic Party can hold onto Michigan and convert the lead in Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Maine and other states outside of North Carolina into enough actual seats is the key to whether the Democratic Party can truly sweep this time Overall, this year's selections are: 1) The Democratic Party's victory in both houses is still a single scenario with stronger evidence support, and it is already a high probability event in the current prediction market and public opinion. 2) The scenario of the Democratic Party winning the House of Representatives and the Republican Party retaining the Senate in a divided Congress is not impossible, and it is worth putting it back into the frame, This path mainly relies on the return of red states, individual Republican candidates outperforming the national environment, and the Democratic Party's narrow lead in key states not being fully realized? This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, "Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading