Is HYPE planning to release $800 million in the third quarter? A few days ago, when we discussed HYPE's third season airdrop, the debate mainly focused on whether it would be released Today, another idea was proposed in the community: even if S3 occurs, the scale may only be 1% to 3% of the total supply, rather than issuing a large portion of the community share at once Putting this guess together with the team's collection records can indeed calculate something First, take a look at the community statistics in the attached image From November 29, 2025 to October 7, 2026, a total of approximately 9.62045 million HYPE were collected from the 11 records in the table, corresponding to a total USD valuation of approximately 604 million for each record If we look at the pace of receiving items, the 3.75 million items in October are the largest in the table, accounting for about 39% of the cumulative received quantity, but accounting for about 57% of the estimated US dollar value on the table Why is there such a big difference between the two ratios? Because each time the corresponding price is recorded, it is different. The same amount of HYPE can present completely different dollar scales in different months So, when discussing the addition of chips, first look at the number of chips; Discuss the nominal value at that time, and then look at the amount in US dollars. We cannot compare them together Taking out the first 1.75 million pieces and the October 3.75 million pieces separately, there are still nine records from January to September 2026, totaling approximately 4.12045 million pieces, with an average of 457800 pieces per contract, and a single dollar valuation of less than 40 million US dollars In this statistics, the team did not receive large releases of the same scale every time Next, let's calculate the so-called 'only sending 1%' The initial supply limit for HYPE announced by Hyper Foundation was 1 billion pieces. The 1% to 3% we are discussing here are all based on this upper limit as the denominator, not the community reward pool as the denominator The current price of HYPE is approximately $80.68. Based on this price, a static calculation can be made: 1%, corresponding to 10 million pieces, with a nominal value of approximately 807 million US dollars 2%, corresponding to 20 million pieces, with a nominal value of approximately 1.614 billion US dollars 3%, corresponding to 30 million pieces, with a nominal value of approximately 2.42 billion US dollars Even if it only accounts for 1% of the supply limit, the corresponding 10 million pieces are slightly higher than the cumulative number of team withdrawals recorded in this table If it is 3%, it is approximately 3.12 times the cumulative amount received in the table This is why "small percentage" and "large chip scale" can be established simultaneously But this is only a quantitative comparison, it does not mean that the two distributions will bring the same selling pressure Team collection may occur sporadically, and recipients may continue to hold or pledge; The hypothetical airdrop also depends on the collection arrangement, the number of recipients, the willingness to hold, and the actual selling speed Both are 10 million pieces, all available at once, and the pace of entering the market may be completely different from phased distribution. The previous $800 million and $2.4 billion were only calculated by multiplying the reference quote by the number of tokens So, since the team is relatively restrained in receiving rewards, can it be proven that S3 will only send 1% to 3%? I think there's still one step left Team tokens and community rewards are originally budgets with different purposes The former corresponds to the attribution arrangement of core contributors, while the latter may also undertake tasks such as user rewards, ecological construction, and network security In the official initial plan, future emissions and community rewards account for 38.888%, corresponding to approximately 389 million coins. The unallocated portion of Genesis will still be transferred to this category, so the initial share cannot be directly used as today's balance Moreover, the official document clearly states that the pledged rewards also come from future emission reserves. This budget is not entirely a pool of money waiting for S3 to send out But this set of calculations has made the problem more specific If users continue to be rewarded in the future, Hyperliquid may not necessarily need to replicate the allocation ratio from the Genesis era in order to generate a large reward budget At the same time, the total amount of the pool is large, which does not mean that everyone can receive a lot How many eligible users there are, how rewards are weighted, which behaviors are recognized, and whether they are distributed in stages will all affect the final amount an individual receives HYPE Hyperliquid Airdrop