The chance of Bitcoin returning to $100,000 this year is now only 26%! Latest prediction market data from Kalshi shows: The probability of BTC breaking $100,000 again before the end of 2026 is currently just 26%! In other words: The market currently believes it’s more likely that Bitcoin won’t return to six figures this year. This is a sentiment signal worth paying close attention to. A few months ago, the market was still debating when Bitcoin would hit a new all-time high. Now, people are starting to doubt whether BTC can even reclaim $100,000 this year. Market sentiment shifts often happen more dramatically than price movements themselves. But I want to remind everyone of one thing: The probabilities in prediction markets don’t equal the actual likelihood of future events. 26% reflects the current expectations of traders expressing their views with money, not Bitcoin’s ultimate destiny. Historically, it has sometimes taken just a few weeks for the market to swing from extreme pessimism to optimism. Of course, pessimism doesn’t necessarily mean the bottom is in. What I’m really paying attention to is this: If the market has already lost confidence in Bitcoin returning to $100,000 by year-end, but the price starts stabilizing and buying interest gradually picks up, what happens then? This could indicate a divergence between market expectations and actual price action. And this kind of divergence is one of my favorite opportunities to watch. There are still a little over two months left until the end of 2026. Do you think Bitcoin can still return to $100,000 this year? Yes, the market is too pessimistic! ❤️ No, let’s wait until next year! Put your money where your analysis is.