In the U.S. stock market, options are only pricing in about a 0.8% move for the day after the election. Hartnett called for a 'Democratic sweep, S&P 500 down 10%+' back in early September. At that time, only 23% of fund managers were betting on a Democratic sweep. Now, prediction markets are pricing in a 2/3 probability of a Democratic sweep. Things that are expected don’t count as risks. SO, WHY still pay attention? Because the odds are asymmetric: -- Democratic sweep: Mostly priced in already, and when the shoe drops, it might actually reduce uncertainty. -- Split government (Democrats and Republicans): 27%, Gridlock = Goldilocks. -- Republican sweep: 9% tail risk, the one card that hasn’t been priced in. If—and I mean *if*—Republicans manage to hold the Senate, the market might see a re-pricing rally triggered by this adjustment. But the sustainability of that rally might not be strong, especially with year-end approaching and another Fed rate hike coming in December.