大老师Bugsbunny|Oct 21, 2026 09:43
This earnings season, the market is getting tougher, but trading opportunities are becoming clearer.
Lately, I’ve been keeping an eye on NFLX, SPCX, and the upcoming earnings reports for TSLA and META.
Here are a few thoughts I’d like to share:
1. Beating earnings doesn’t necessarily mean the stock price will go up.
NFLX beat EPS expectations this time, but its ad business outlook fell short of market demands, leading to a post-market drop.
On the flip side, take SPCX—its stock price previously dropped from 175 to 147, a cumulative adjustment of about 16%. Before the earnings report, I leaned toward a rebound since some pessimistic expectations had already been priced in.
After the earnings report, the stock was up about 8% pre-market.
This was somewhat of an early prediction, but the difficulty of making accurate judgments remains extremely high.
2. Over the past few earnings seasons, I’ve been using the same analysis framework.
For example, when analyzing NVDA, ADBE, and SNOW previously, I mainly focused on three things:
- IV Expected Move: How much volatility the market is willing to pay for.
- GEX / Call Wall / Put Wall: Key price levels where funds are concentrated.
- Earnings guidance vs. expectations: Ultimately determines whether the stock price can break out of the expected range.
Especially with IV Crush, even if you get the direction right, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll make money on options.
3. Recently, I’ve also started paying attention to changes in trading platforms themselves.
Coinbase has clearly been accelerating its cross-asset trading layout over the past six months.
U.S. users can now trade U.S. stocks and ETFs 24/5 via Coinbase, and in international markets, there are stock perpetual contracts like SPCX-PERP.
In October, Coinbase completed its integration with Deribit, and it will further roll out crypto options and unified portfolio features.
Coinbase itself is set to release its earnings report on October 29.
Last quarter, trading revenue was $599 million, and subscription and services revenue was $555 million. I’ll be focusing on whether trading volume, USDC business, and derivatives can drive new growth.
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