Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|10月 20, 2026 20:15
SPCX SpaceX Q3 Earnings Report Exceeds Expectations SpaceX delivered an impressive Q3 earnings report, with revenue surging 161% year-over-year to $14.575 billion, surpassing market expectations of $12.738 billion. EPS hit $0.35, far exceeding the forecast of $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.81 billion, about 34% higher than the expected $6.59 billion. Net profit came in at $4.4 billion, also significantly beating the market estimate of $1.88 billion. What's even more noteworthy is that the company was still in a loss-making position last quarter, but this quarter has achieved substantial profitability. With the growth of Starlink users and the expansion of AI business scale, operational leverage is gradually being released. The AI business was the most critical part of this earnings report. Q3 AI revenue reached $7.56 billion, exceeding market expectations of $6.3 billion, and nearly tripling the $2.56 billion revenue from Q2. The company continues to expand its Colossus II supercomputing infrastructure, and as of September 30, the nominal computing power infrastructure corresponds to a power capacity of 1.7GW, up from 1.4GW at the end of Q2 and nearly triple the 0.6GW from the same period last year. Management emphasized that Starlink's stable recurring revenue, the leading position of the rocket launch business, and the rapid expansion of the Super Intelligence business are collectively driving the company's profitability growth. The biggest concern in this earnings report remains capital expenditures and cash reserves. Q3 CapEx reached $19.59 billion, which is roughly in line with market expectations of $19.6 billion but exceeds total revenue for the quarter. The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at $51.29 billion, falling short of market expectations of $91.2 billion—a gap of nearly $40 billion. While this doesn't indicate an immediate liquidity crisis, it does reflect that the market's previous expectations for cash reserves were overly optimistic. With AI infrastructure still requiring massive ongoing investments, investors will be paying closer attention to future free cash flow, financing needs, and return on capital.
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