Seth|Oct 20, 2026 18:33
It is not a coincidence that protests have surged in France, Italy, and Belgium lately.
France, Belgium and Italy stand out among the European Union’s largest public spenders as the most exposed.
France spends 57.2 percent of GDP and runs a 5.1 percent deficit. Public debt exceeds 115 percent of GDP.
Belgium spends 54.2 percent of GDP with a 5.2 percent deficit and debt near 108 percent.
Italy spends 51.2 percent of GDP. Its deficit is lower at 3.1 percent, yet its debt stock is the highest in the group at roughly 137 percent of GDP.
These ratios leave little room for error. Interest payments already absorb a growing share of budgets as older debt is refinanced at higher rates.
Aging populations push pension and health costs higher each year, so the same spending share becomes harder to finance.
Growth remains modest, which means the debt ratio does not decline even when deficits improve modestly. A recession or further rise in borrowing costs would force larger adjustments than in countries with lower debt and smaller deficits.
The combination of large government shares of the economy, ongoing shortfalls, and heavy debt loads makes France, Belgium and Italy the most vulnerable of the high spending member states.
There are no quick fixes for these problems.
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