Caleb Franzen
Caleb Franzen|Oct 20, 2026 16:54
This continues to be one of my favorite indicators for Bitcoin. In fact, I even used it to flip bearish last November at $97k. It measures the YoY percent change for Bitcoin. When it flips negative, that probably doesn't happen in a bullish environment. But when it's negative and rising (or when it flips positive), then that's a sign that the downtrend is weakening and starting to show signs of life. Current measure is -25%. Naturally, given the price action in Q4'25, this variable SHOULD improve. Once it flips positive, that will be the final confirmation to determine that we are officially in a new bull market (though I've already made that proclamation). Still, more weight of the evidence is always welcomed. Embrace nuance.
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