Caleb Franzen|Oct 20, 2026 16:54
This continues to be one of my favorite indicators for Bitcoin.
In fact, I even used it to flip bearish last November at $97k.
It measures the YoY percent change for Bitcoin.
When it flips negative, that probably doesn't happen in a bullish environment.
But when it's negative and rising (or when it flips positive), then that's a sign that the downtrend is weakening and starting to show signs of life.
Current measure is -25%.
Naturally, given the price action in Q4'25, this variable SHOULD improve.
Once it flips positive, that will be the final confirmation to determine that we are officially in a new bull market (though I've already made that proclamation).
Still, more weight of the evidence is always welcomed.
Embrace nuance.
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