Today's Market Update (1) The price action yesterday and today has been so bizarre... The capital flow is all over the place. Looking at ETFs, yesterday Coinbase had a negative premium, but CVD rebounded by around 400 after the U.S. stock market opened... And then today, I see that $500 million flowed into ETFs yesterday? The market doesn't look like it had a $500 million inflow at all... At the same time, Binance's spot CVD is showing the same trend. Both yesterday and today, CVD has been surging... There's active buying happening in the spot market. This level of buying, if it happened last week, would have been reflected in the price. You can see this in the three instances on the left side of Chart 1. But yesterday and today, Binance is seeing aggressive buying, and the aggregated spot CVD across the network is also showing strong buying, yet the price is moving in the opposite direction (white box in Chart 1). All of this is being absorbed by passive sell orders... And these sell pressures aren't showing up in the visible order book; they're hidden, with small orders slowly absorbing the active buy orders. ----------- The real reason behind this capital flow divergence might still lie in the contract market... In those three instances on the left where spot pushed the price up, contract CVD was also rising, while OI (open interest) was decreasing. This indicates a price rebound with short positions closing out, so both spot and contracts worked together to push the price up. But yesterday and today are completely different. Contract CVD is trending downward, while OI is increasing. This shows that contract market shorts are actively entering the market (Chart 2). ----------- So the current situation is: the $500 million ETF inflow from yesterday is now in a floating loss, and when the U.S. stock market opens, some of it might get liquidated, causing another dip. Leverage-driven speculative capital (contracts) is betting on a downward move (shorts are entering heavily). Meanwhile, the macro environment remains weak—oil is climbing, and both the S&P and Nasdaq are under pressure. Overall, it's a mild risk-off sentiment, and there's still no clear catalyst to break the range. Expect more sideways movement for now. After the U.S. stock market opens, there's a high probability of another dip to test lower levels. See the red, yellow, and green lines in Chart 3... (To be continued)