Still not optimistic about PAPER's 'loss mining + betting against LP' model for sustainability This morning, Papertrade released an announcement, mainly stating that PAPER transfers are temporarily disabled. The official reasoning focuses on the downsides of the betting mechanism: 'Once PAPER can be shorted externally, attackers could manipulate BTC/ETH to drain LPs while shorting PAPER at the same time, profiting on both ends.' This would weaken the betting mechanism's 'limit red' capability. People always say casinos can make a lot of money, and Papertrade does have a clear house advantage. But everything hinges on the ability to compound under 'limit red' conditions. In other words, the house needs stricter position management. Unfortunately: > If there were a TGE, PAPER could fully follow the 'cyclical stock' hype logic. > Protocol revenue could be calculated, staking dividends would have a curve, and combined with PE... > As trading volume increases, dividends grow, PE multiples rise—this would’ve been its best narrative. Now, without a TGE, the narrative has been cut off by themselves: > Paragon halted trading this morning, with pre-market positions settled uniformly at 0.026296. > Minting has been adjusted to increase supply by about 0.1% for every $1M loss. > On Polymarket, the probability of 'Papertrade launching a token this year' dropped from ~58% to 7% after the announcement, straight into single digits. It’s a shame they didn’t fully grasp the rules at the start. Using a $10M position to farm the top-tier mining rewards... Luckily, I was traveling the past few days and didn’t rush into Paper’s hedging mining. Without a clear exit strategy, are you guys still willing to burn fees to farm PAPER?