[Core Warning of U.S. Stock Market Peak: Decline in Asian Chip Exports May Signal Early Capital Expenditure Peak, High Yields Could Crush Valuations if Earnings Expectations Reverse] Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on October 20, Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White pointed out that the key to whether U.S. stocks can continue to rise lies not in Treasury yields but in data from the Asian semiconductor supply chain. Currently, the resilience of U.S. stocks is primarily supported by an extraordinary projected earnings growth rate of 40% for the S&P 500 Index over the next three years. The impact of high discount rates is temporarily offset by strong revenue and profit margin expectations, and the current rise in yields is driven by real interest rates reflecting actual economic growth, which has not yet posed a substantial threat to the stock market. However, this support is heavily reliant on the growth narrative driven by artificial intelligence capital expenditures. Compared to lagging analyst forecasts and individual company announcements, chip export data from South Korea and Taiwan has the characteristic of leading the capital expenditure cycle by 3 to 6 months. Although there are no clear signs of reversal in related exports at present, a significant decline in Asian semiconductor exports would indicate the peak of the capital expenditure cycle and trigger a shift in earnings expectations. At that point, yields exceeding 5% would directly pose a crushing risk to the high valuations of U.S. stocks.