深潮TechFlow|Oct 20, 2026 06:26
[Fu Peng: U.S. Stock Market Breadth Under Pressure, Divergence Between Equal-Weighted and Composite Index Drawdowns May Reach Critical Point]
Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on October 20, Bitfire Group Chief Economist Fu Peng (@fupenglondon) analyzed that under the support of heavyweight stocks, the U.S. stock composite index appears stable on the surface. However, the vast majority of stocks in the market are experiencing deeper technical drawdowns, while market-cap-weighted giants are maintaining high levels due to passive capital inflows and concentrated support. He pointed out that when the orange line in the chart (the divergence between equal-weighted and composite index drawdowns) approaches the historical extreme range of 4%–6% or higher, it indicates that market breadth has been stretched to its limit. At this point, even a slight supplementary decline in the giants could trigger a rapid spike in the suppressed VIX. Recently, the divergence between equal-weighted and composite index drawdowns has expanded and reached a critical point, signaling the arrival of the U.S. stock market breadth's limit. The distortion of volatility suppression and diversification premiums is beginning to correct as volatility rises.
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