☀️ 3D Integrated Trading System | BTC Market Early Bus ----The holding cost of the new whale is around 77K. The daily chart has converged to the end, and BTC's short-term change is coming soon ❗ ️ The current price is around 81.8K. Last night, it surged up to 83.1K, but didn't stop and was pushed back below 82K. The rebound of technology stocks failed to drive BTC, and the two trends diverged. 1. Long and short positions can: Short covering leads the rebound, but long relay is weak. In the past 24 hours, short positions accounted for 71.7%, with approximately $104 million of short positions cleared, significantly higher than the long positions of 70.83 million. This rebound from 80.8K to 83.1K was mainly driven by short positions closing, not new long positions entering the market. In terms of quantity, the long and short positions are still weak and there is no sustained increase in volume. 2. On chain data: ETF outflows of 910 million in two weeks, but BlackRock is transferring coins to Coinbase. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has had a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, totaling approximately 910 million. BlackRock ETF affiliated addresses transferred 883 BTC and 28900 ETH to Coinbase Prime, with a total value of $143 million. This is not a good signal. The entrusted buying and selling orders on the order book have all shrunk in amount! The address holding 1000-10000 BTC has a net decrease of nearly zero and is basically in a wait-and-see state. The delivery behavior of giant whales has not stopped, but the intensity is slowing down. 3. Structural form: The daily chart converges to the end, and the change is approaching. BTC is getting narrower and narrower in the range of 80.2K-83.3K, and the daily chart has reached the end of the convergence triangle. The volatility is compressed to the extreme, and a change in direction may occur at any time. Xiaolong's core judgment: The daily chart has converged to the end, and a change is approaching. ETFs are flowing out, spot demand is turning negative, and the rebound of short covering is not sustainable. 83.3K cannot go up, 80.2K is dangerous. Because now it is highly likely that the direction of the predicted change will turn downwards. Even if the short-term upward change is likely to lead to more, there is a lot of pressure above, and there is a lot of divergence between the long and short, and ETF institutions are not awesome. The realized market value of New Whale (an address holding over 1000 BTC and with relatively new on chain activity) has increased from 18% at the beginning of the year to 33%, with a cost base around 77K. This indicates that new institutions or large funds are entering the market. At present, the buying demand of the new giant whale is not enough to independently support 80K. If ETFs continue to flow out and spot demand does not recover, the defensive pressure on 80K will continue to increase. If the trading volume falls below 80.2K, look around 79.8K or even 77K, which is near the holding cost of the new giant whale. If the unexpected increase in volume exceeds 83.3K, re evaluate.