大老师Bugsbunny|10月 19, 2026 21:21
NFLX Earnings Forecast: Bearish bias, focusing on $64–$65.
Based on current options data, the market is clearly in defensive mode.
The current IV implies an earnings volatility range of approximately ±8.44%, corresponding to a $5.89 move up or down.
Bearish bets targeting $60P are not uncommon, but I believe $58 is a tough level to break directly.
The $75C and $80C reflect the market's expectations for amplified volatility, which could also be influenced by the price gravity of the GEX Wall. However, I think $80 will be hard to break.
Considering the distribution of the GEX Wall, the market is still pricing in post-earnings downside risk, and $64–$65 is the area I’m focusing on.
My final judgment: NFLX earnings are leaning bearish, with a focus on $64–$65.
Of course, the final outcome depends on whether the actual earnings significantly exceed expectations.
This time, I’ll continue using options data to validate the forecast and review the results after earnings.
OKX U.S. Stock Earnings Season
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