High interest rates are simultaneously strangling an AI empire and a European power! Can this still drag down the US stock market and BTC? In the past week, two things happened simultaneously: The first one: CoreWeave's junk bond yield soared to 15.7%, with an implied default probability of over 60%. Behind it is a structure of 14 billion 'junk bonds nested with junk bonds', and once the chain is broken, the AI computing power financing plate will shake. Second: e The yield of French 30-year treasury bond soared by 130 basis points, and the French German interest rate spread hit 142 basis points. The script is highly similar to the 2011 European debt crisis. The bond market is selling France, and the streets are burning France. The bottom layer is the same dead spot: capital has become expensive, borrowing money has boundaries. AI building data centers and government rolling fiscal deficits are all competing for money in the same pool. Whoever has the most fragile watch will explode first. Goldman Sachs has identified a counterintuitive closed loop: If high interest rates force AI to burn money and reduce the supply of long-term bonds, interest rates may fall. But the cost is that the AI industry chain completely kills the valuation. What does this mean for the US stock market? AI receipts that rely on debt to survive may plummet to zero directly. Although giants have also fallen, they cannot die. The index looks decent, but most individual stocks will fall much worse than the index. What does Bitcoin mean? In the short term, it has fallen along with AI stocks, and the correlation has soared to 0.9. This means that BTC has almost lost its independence and become a "highly leveraged shadow" of AI technology stocks. In the medium term, what it waited for was not the collapse of the AI foam, but the re watering of the Federal Reserve. Before that, it will be difficult to go up, and the bull market will inevitably turn back. Two cracks, it's not over yet, The capital battle has just begun.