PalBTC Market Weekly Report -10.19 1. Weekly continued to close negative and ETF data 1) The weekly chart has closed negative for 2 weeks and is in a continuous decline, with the low point falling below 80. From Zhou K's perspective, it is still bearish for now. 2) According to BTC ETF data, there was a outflow of 228 million this week, of which IBIT outflow was 166 million. Since October, the BTC ETF has flowed out 504 million. In September, BTC ETF inflows reached 3.538 billion, compared to 3.538 billion in August (see Figure 2 for data). Based on current data, BTC.ETF has gone through a cycle of stock turnover bottoming out (July), leading single pole position building (August), momentum bearish peak (September), and buying exhaustion and high-level distribution (October). From the data in October, FBTC and ARKB, which were the most aggressive in chasing after gains in late September, became the main force in smashing the market, with net outflows of -462 million and -215 million respectively in just 12 trading days. Then, last week, ibid could not withstand the selling pressure, with a net outflow of -166 million in a single week. So currently, the pullback is driven by profit taking/stop loss. Especially from September 18th to 25th, the intense buying spree of+2.819 billion has accumulated a large amount of short-term chips, and is currently in a period of consolidation and digestion. Next, we need to pay attention to whether IBIT can be the first to end its weekly net outflow status and FBTC will stop large net redemptions in late October. 2. From the perspective of the k-line 1) At present, the range we are focusing on is still 60-979, with an EQ of 79. Currently, due to the existence of the monthly MSB, 578 is a high certainty bottom, so for this period, we will first look at the oscillation and correction. 2) Because it is a volatile pullback, the key point is still where the pullback is going. When it comes to the specific situation, it depends on the funds. Here, we only focus on the key position. I think we should first focus on the vicinity of 77-78, where EQ and low support levels are located. If it can't hold up here, then we'll have to plunder 75. We'll go see if the pins react near 72. If we go any further, we'll have to look around 65, which currently has a low probability. 3. Macro news 1) Last week's unexpected CPI and PPI led to a decline in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq falling 4.5% and the semiconductor sector experiencing a significant sell-off. Investors have begun to reassess the financing costs, cash flow, and investment returns of AI infrastructure. I don't think it can be concluded that the demand for AI has declined at present, but the market's risk tolerance for high leverage and high capital expenditure AI companies is decreasing. Therefore, we need to pay attention to whether this pressure will continue to spread to large technology stocks or gradually ease after financial report verification. 2) There isn't much to pay attention to this week's macro data, mainly during the intensive period of financial reports. The market focus will shift from macro data to corporate profitability and future guidance. Key focus: Wednesday night to Thursday morning, especially META+LRCX+TXN. These three companies have the greatest reference value in determining AI capital expenditures and semiconductor demand. 3) Macro data focus: Wednesday's 20-year US Treasury Bond Auction: The issuance scale is 13 billion US dollars. The current long-term interest rates are still high, and if there is insufficient auction demand, it may push up the yield of 10-year and longer-term US bonds again, putting pressure on the valuation of technology stocks. Friday US PMI: If the PMI falls below expectations and price sub items cool down, it may alleviate market concerns about sustained inflation. If PMI shows a significant decline but price pressure remains high, it is necessary to be alert to the coexistence of slowing growth and inflation.