Always made my best money by being early: YFI farming, LIT referrals etc. Only 9 days in, and I'm not early to Papertrade anymore. Early farmers got 100 PAPER per $1 of eligible losses. Now just ~11. Just feels like I'm an exit liquidity. No? A $1000 losing trade now gets me ~10.7k PAPER. Stake it and I'd get ~$2.60 to $4.90 per day if recent payouts continued. 200 to 385 days just to recover my loss. And that excludes new issuance diluting my share. So once PAPER becomes transferable, some traders might prefer selling to recover losses instead of waiting for yield. Soooo... The BIG BET on PAPER is whether traders keep gambling after farming stops making sense. At the end, the product needs to be worth using even when the incentives aren't enough. For losers, yeah, they get the token. But winners pay an 'asymmetric-impact haircut' BEFORE the additional 2% fee. (There are no funding or notional trading fees, so the cost comparison isn't so simple) How many are here for the product vs deliberately losing because they expect PAPER to pay them back? That is what one needs to answer. As Galaxy Research posted: 'Once PAPER becomes transferable, the market price will determine how much farming happens, and that, in turn, will determine long-term revenue.' So PAPER dumping could mean less farming -> lower payouts -> less reason to hold. Got rekt from this kind of down spiral a few times. My next opportunity might be buying from farmers selling to recover losses. But only if the price makes sense on payouts AFTER farming slows. So I will treat PAPER as a "revenue token" if it sustains it after a while. Trading PAPER once it's transferable seems easier to me than trading on Papertrade itself.