TraderS | 缺德道人|10月 19, 2026 08:48
This pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with $BTC spiking up and breaking 83k. It’s really holding up even when U.S. stocks are dropping, and once U.S. stocks rebound, it’s showing even more strength. Although I can’t be 100% sure why $BTC is so resilient this time, I’m guessing it’s because expectations for real interest rates have stabilized.
Even though we’re still in a rate hike cycle and there are probably two more hikes totaling 50BP ahead, the consensus seems to be that this rate hike cycle will be short. So, the bearish impact isn’t as strong as expected.
Another possibility is that while AI, especially storage-related stocks, have taken a heavy hit, this time is different from the drop in July. The market isn’t in widespread panic, or maybe most retail investors already deleveraged back in July. This time, prices have dropped quite a bit, but the pain feels much less severe.
So, this downturn might actually just be a rotation, fundamentally different from the broad deleveraging we saw in July.
Looking at long-term rates, easing has already started happening on the Treasury side. The Treasury’s quasi-“Operation Twist” is clashing with Waller’s hawkish rhetoric. This brings us back to the U.S. version of YCC logic: the Fed controls the nominal short end, while the Treasury manages duration and liquidity. The net effect is favorable for $BTC.
In short, since $BTC has proven its strength, we need to shift our mindset from the previous bear market perspective. Strategically, it’s time to move from shorting the highs to buying the dips.
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