A bunch of investment tycoons are issuing foam warnings, but Howard Marx doesn't think so, and just Marx's view is the most noteworthy one in my opinion. Let's talk about Max's core point: he does not think that the market has reached the real foam state at present. His core logic is that one of the essential characteristics of foam is that investors are "oblivious" to risks. When all the people on Wall Street are alert to the risks of foam, this "oblivious" is precisely absent. "If enough people are cautiously asking whether there is a foam in a certain field, then there is every reason to believe that even if it is a foam, the market will show restraint," said Howard Marks. Max described foam as "irrational exuberance, recklessness, and obliviousness". In contrast to this framework, Howard Marx's current assessment is that investors do show "fear of missing" (FOMO) for further rise, but the continuous discussion of foam risk itself shows that the market is not in a state of "oblivion"; and in another signal - investors' reckless behavior, the signal is also mixed. Why is Max's viewpoint worth paying attention to? As the founder of Oaktree Capital and the author of the book 'The Cycle', his understanding of fundamentals and market sentiment should be top-notch. More importantly, his glorious achievements in the past 20 years: 1) In January 2000, Max issued his memo "http://(bubble. com)", which was later widely circulated. At that time, the NASDAQ had not yet reached its peak. In his article, Max compared the enthusiasm of technology stocks at that time with the history of the South Sea foam, warning that there was obvious signs of speculative overheating in the market, and the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000; 2) In July 2007, Max released the "It's All Good" memo, which was his most important warning memo before the outbreak of the global financial crisis. In October 2007, the US stock market began a year and a half long plunge; 3) After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the market fell into a doomsday narrative, believing that the financial system could collapse. Max pointed out in two memoranda, "Nobody Knows" in September 2008 and "The Limits to Negativism" in October 2008, that pessimism has become excessive. And his Oaktree Capital used the previously prepared $11 billion "reserve fund" to gradually reduce its holdings and buy at the bottom in batches; 4) In March 2012, the annualized return of the S&P 500 from 2000 to 2011 was only about 0.55%, and there was a strong negative sentiment after GFC. Max suggested adopting a more positive attitude towards stocks (compared to the extremely negative environment at the time), and did not expect a 2000 style surge, but believed that the positive scenario was not difficult to imagine; 5) In March 2020, after the outbreak of COVID-19, the market fell rapidly (the S&P 500 fell by about 1/3 from its high point in February to its low point in March). Max pointed out in "Nobody Knows II" in mid March 2020 and in the customer update on March 19th that the future is full of unknowns, but ignorance does not necessarily mean inaction. Oak tree explicitly refuses to wait until the bottom to buy, but instead buys when value can be obtained at a low price. Panic selling (including forced selling) creates opportunities to start allocating during the most chaotic times in the market. Max himself admits that these five major judgments were the main success stories of his approximately 50 year career. And his book 'The Cycle' is an investment Bible that I believe can be read repeatedly and carefully, which was also published on X a long time ago https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1837028540153483730? S=20 has been recommended. This time, from the perspective of market reflexivity, the market did not reach the state of foam. Last night's tweet also talked about the nature of this adjustment of US stocks: it was normal market fluctuations under the narrative of high-speed growth, not the prelude to the bursting of foam. All roads lead to Rome Previously, Grok mentioned that I had traces of Max's cycle probability, which would have been a great honor, https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2092886129666322932? s=20