TraderS | 缺德道人|10月 19, 2026 03:00
Judging from the debate between the U.S. and Iran over the 'Mother of All Bombs' in the past two days, it seems the U.S. military might have a plan to use massive bombs to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and achieve a somewhat justifiable victory. Last year, the easing of the Iran situation ended with the U.S. bombing the Fordow nuclear facility and declaring victory.
Theoretically, after the midterm elections, Trump would want to quickly disengage from Iran, and to do so, he needs to secure some key victories to report back to voters. With no hope for negotiations, bombing nuclear facilities is basically the optimal solution.
That said, the 'Mother of All Bombs' (GBU-43/B) is an airburst bomb, mainly used for creating a media impact. To truly strike nuclear facilities, they would still need to use last year's GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs.
So, keep a close eye on this. If they really bomb, it might signal the end of the tacit understanding. But the prerequisite is still giving Iran enough benefits, like service fees for crossing the strait. After all, this isn’t the Khamenei era anymore, when the old man could stop everything with a single word. Now, Iran has tasted the sweetness of being tough, and internal interests have become more divided. Using the same tactics again will definitely come at a higher cost.
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