wu fan|Oct 18, 2026 08:01
By last Friday's market close,
including dividends,
those who bought Moutai at 1300-1400 in 2025
have all broken even.
If you listened and did DCA (dollar-cost averaging) when it dropped to 1100-1200,
you should have a 10-20% return by now.
Good assets are like pregnancy—
it takes time for the results to show.
It's still early now,
and it will take even more time.
There's a mystical rule in A-shares:
whenever a stock's price surpasses Moutai,
that's its peak.
In the past year, a few stocks surpassed Moutai.
If you look at them now,
you'll go from scoffing at this rule
to respecting it.
Why hasn't there been a single exception?
Because the hard profits are right there.
Moutai, with a market cap of 1.6 trillion yuan,
steadily makes 90-100 billion yuan in annual profits,
and distributes 60 billion in buybacks and dividends.
It's the A-share company with the most buybacks and dividends.
Those that surpassed Moutai?
Their profits are miles behind Moutai's—
sometimes not even a fraction of it—
and they still need to keep raising funds in the market.
When they surpass Moutai,
just compare their financial reports with Moutai's,
and holders can't hold on anymore.
It's like in 2021 when Bitcoin's market cap surpassed Apple's.
I shorted Bitcoin right then (it's on my Weibo record).
Once it surpasses, people can't help but compare.
And when they compare, they panic.
If Bitcoin surpassed NVIDIA today,
wouldn't you panic too?
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