比特币橙子Trader|Oct 18, 2026 07:01
Bitcoin Quantum Crisis: How much preparation has Bitcoin Core made?
Many people are worried that quantum computing will break through Bitcoin's elliptic curve encryption, and there is no Price In in the market yet.
I have reviewed the progress of Bitcoin Core and the development community over the past two years and found that there has been substantial work done, but there is still a long way to go to truly solve the problem.
There are currently five main technical routes:
1. BIP-360: Upgrade Address Structure
Introducing P2MR and removing Taproot's long-term exposed public key Key Path to reduce the risk of quantum attacks. In 2026, it has entered the specific code and testing phase, but it is not possible to achieve complete quantum security alone.
2. Post quantum signature: Replace ECDSA/Schnorr
Research signature algorithms such as ML-DSA, SLH-DSA, SHRINCS, etc. Some reference implementations and security proofs have been provided, but the difficulty lies in increasing the signature size, which may significantly increase transaction fees and block burden.
3. BIP-361: Develop a migration plan for old coins
Propose phased elimination of old signatures: prohibit transferring new funds to fragile addresses after about 3 years of activation, and limit the cost of old signatures for another 2 years. Note that this is the schedule in the proposal and has not been activated yet.
4. Quantum attack warning and automatic defense
Pieter Wuille and other developers proposed mechanisms such as Tripwire, attempting to trigger the closure of the old signature path after detecting that the elliptic curve has been actually breached. At present, it is still in the stage of research and discussion.
5. Old BTC Rescue and Lightning Network Upgrade
Developers explore zk STARK ownership proof, commit/rescue solutions, and the use of ML-KEM and ML-DSA to transform the Lightning Network. Some experimental prototypes have already been developed, but there is still a long way to go before deploying the main network.
The three biggest issues currently are:
There is no anti quantum consensus upgrade activated on the Bitcoin mainnet.
How to deal with a large amount of untransferred BTC if quantum computers break through elliptic curves in advance? Freeze or allow transfer? There is no consensus in the community.
The migration of global exchanges, wallets, custodians, and individual holders may take several years.
The Bitcoin development community has been preparing for the quantum crisis for a long time, and the technical roadmap has progressed from theoretical discussions to proposals, code, and testing.
But Bitcoin Core does not have the ability to unilaterally decide on the upgrade of the entire network, and ultimately requires consensus from the community.
No one knows when quantum computers will be able to break through Bitcoin. What truly needs to be vigilant is:
The speed of quantum technology advancement may exceed the speed at which Bitcoin completes global migration.
It is difficult to say that the market has already fully priced in this part of the risk.
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