Someone asked me which historical phase BTC resembles right now. Looking at the historical macro cycles, there are some striking similarities! It does hold some reference value. I think the current BTC market feels a bit like mid-2019 + early 2023, with similar patterns of technical recovery and sentiment warming up, though the pace is different. This cycle’s maximum drawdown is about 53%, much smaller than 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022. The structure is more moderate, so I won’t go into too much detail about technical indicators! But we can’t ignore the key differences. Based on the 4-year cycle, after peaking in October 2025, the adjustment period is typically 10-13 months. For this cycle, it only took about 8 months from the peak to the bottom. Right now, it feels more like an overlap between bottom confirmation and the start of a new cycle, rather than the adjustment being fully complete. Additionally, with ETFs and public companies holding about 13% of the circulating supply, and a high proportion of long-term holders, the distribution of tokens is more institutionalized than before. This means there’s a stronger floor for declines, but the explosive upside might also be somewhat capped. So, historical similarities are a reference point, not a guarantee. Keep an eye on the monthly moving average around $87,000-$88,000. If it breaks above, the analogy holds; if not, we’ll need to reassess. Sharing this with you all—not calling a direction, just think this is a spot worth watching together. #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis