小龙先生|10月 18, 2026 02:40
The South Korean Finance Minister says the semiconductor boom will last at least until 2027.
Does this contradict our prediction that the U.S. stock market and AI might crash in 2027?
Not at all. I think the South Korean Finance Minister is quite foresighted!
What the Finance Minister is talking about is 'industry prosperity.'
What we’re talking about is a 'stock market crash.'
These two things have never been the same.
Just look at how fragile the South Korean stock market is right now.
On October 15, KOSPI plunged 7.57%, triggering a circuit breaker.
This is the sixth circuit breaker since 2026.
From 9,114 points in June to 5,554 points in less than four months, wiping out 39%.
But how does South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho explain this?
He said: 'Chip stocks amplify the volatility of South Korea’s stock market.
The semiconductor industry’s share in the national economy is higher than in other countries.'
The subtext is: I know the root cause, but I can’t fix it.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—these two companies account for nearly half of KOSPI’s total market value.
Half of the country’s stock market hangs on these two companies.
When the global AI narrative truly reverses in 2027,
do you think the stock prices of these two companies can hold up?
When the supply-demand gap for memory chips is filled,
when AI capital expenditures can no longer sustain sky-high valuations,
South Korea’s circuit breakers won’t just be a monthly occurrence;
it’ll be a full-blown avalanche.
Industry prosperity is driven by industrial logic.
Stock market crashes are driven by valuation logic.
No matter how good the performance is, it can’t withstand the collapse of valuations.
So, the 2027 script is pretty clear:
Semiconductors will still make money, and AI computing power will still be consumed.
But the capital market won’t give them hundreds of times PE ratios anymore.
In 2027, the first stock market to fall might very well be South Korea’s!
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