The whole world is waiting for a U.S. debt crash, but Bitcoin couldn’t hold up first❗️ Over the past two months, $BTC has risen nearly 30%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed over 10%. The correlation between the two is above 0.6, hitting a historic high. But this isn’t “Bitcoin following the rise.” In the short term, Bitcoin is being drained by U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. and Iran go to war after November 3, oil prices will spike first. Inflation expectations will rise, and the probability of rate hikes will follow. The higher the yield, the more painful it is for non-yielding assets. On October 8, $BTC dropped below 83,000 CNY, and this is the chain reaction. But in the long term, Bitcoin is waiting for something else. Federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion❗️ Interest payments have overtaken Medicare to become the second-largest budget item. If interest rates stay high, interest payments will soon become the largest expense. The market isn’t trading “Bitcoin,” it’s trading the “unsustainability of U.S. debt.” In the short term, war accelerates the drain. In the long term, war deepens the cracks. But don’t rush just yet. Gold hasn’t risen—it’s still falling. Stablecoins are being hoarded, not entering the market. The cracks in U.S. debt haven’t fully broken, and the Fed hasn’t put down its knife. Until creditors start doubting U.S. debt, Bitcoin can only wait. A healthy bull market retracement is also highly likely to happen. Can the Bitcoin in your hands withstand the short-term drain and wait for the long-term cracks?