pepper 花椒 (中产版)|Oct 17, 2026 09:23
Here’s a quick summary of the current bearish reasons:
1/ CPI and PPI are overheating, and fears of inflation rebound are back on the main stage. The core issue is still oil driving several indicators to overheat: gas, fuel, and airline tickets exceeding expectations.
2/ Oil prices are worsening. Trump is working with Russia, hoping to use Russian diesel to ease price anxiety, but Congress is drafting a bill to ban it. Meanwhile, Iran remains strong, and high oil prices in the short term remain unresolved.
3/ ChangXin’s 4F² technology breakthrough threatens the positions of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Whether storage prices will rise is still a question mark.
4/ OpenAI’s ARR mix-up—reported $50 billion as $70 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic’s Pre-IPO in NY on Wednesday further slashed expectations. Initially projected to hit $100 billion by year-end, Q3 revenue was only $16.8 billion, meaning year-end might max out at $80 billion, falling short by $20 billion. A $2 trillion valuation doesn’t hold up anymore.
5/ CRWV’s credit default swap (CDS) has reached 1,194.5 basis points, surging 150bp recently. This could mean it needs to raise hundreds of billions to fill the gap, directly sparking concerns about New Cloud NBIS/Oracle and impacting the overall semiconductor narrative.
6/ Looks like Jane Street is the one liquidating—another chance to pick up the scraps!
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