看不懂的SOL|Oct 17, 2026 06:20
Sorry, I added some space
What should be done if there are 24 retracements in 30 years and the data says a 10% drop?
From June 6, 1996 to October 16, 2026, with 7819 trading days, the Nasdaq 100 experienced a total of 24 cycles of drawdown exceeding 10%.
On average, once every 15 months.
Out of these 24 times, 18 times did not drop to 20%, accounting for three-quarters.
Set the discipline to wait for a 20% drop before entering, and three-quarters of the chances will be missed because they will rebound halfway through.
How fast is the rebound.
22 out of 24 times, from the first drop below 10% to a new high, took less than 252 trading days, with a median of 36.5 trading days, approximately seven weeks.
The only exception was the round in 2000. On March 27, 2000, it peaked at 4705 points and fell to 804.6 points on October 7, 2002, a drop of 82.9%. It was not until November 3, 2015 that it recovered.
After buying it again.
On the day of the first drop below 10% in each drawdown cycle, there are a total of 24 opportunities in 30 years, of which 22 have a full year to observe.
Holding for one year, 18 times is profitable, with a win rate of 81.8% and a median return of 27.5%.
Buy on any given day during the same period, with a winning rate of 80.4% and a median of 18.0%.
The winning rate is almost indistinguishable, with 81.8% against 80.4%. The real difference lies in how much money is earned, with a difference of 9.5 percentage points.
But brothers, we need to pour a bucket of cold water here.
Extend the time, and the advantage will flip over.
Over a three-year period, the winning rate for drawdown buying is 65.0%, while for casual buying it is 82.7%.
Over a five-year period, 57.9% compared to 82.6%.
The longer you hold, the worse it will be to buy back.
The reason lies in the signal distribution.
Eleven of the 24 times were squeezed between 1996 and 2000, which was the foam period.
The most tragic time was on April 3, 2000, when it closed at 4077 points, falling below 10% and buying it. Three years later, it still lost 75.5%.
So the only thing that brothers can use as discipline is one sentence.
Withdrawal itself cannot be the reason for buying, and it can only be done if withdrawal and valuation are not in the foam area.
If it is a long-term holding, why add a small position during a pullback?
After the market closed, an additional $50000 was added to the position, with the Nasdaq at $100
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