Retesting the ascending trendline—whether it holds will determine the next move! From late June’s $58K to mid-September’s $75K, and now hovering around $81K, BTC’s daily lows have been consistently climbing, indicating the medium-term uptrend remains intact. But there’s a detail worth noting: since late September, the highs have been steadily declining. Higher lows, lower highs—two converging trendlines suggest BTC has entered a critical inflection point. Looking at the macro environment: yesterday, U.S. stocks opened lower but closed higher, with the S&P and Dow ending in the green. This shows the market hasn’t completely panicked despite CPI and PPI exceeding expectations. U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back significantly, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has dropped to around 30%, slightly improving short-term liquidity expectations. However, the issue is that inflationary pressures haven’t disappeared. U.S. tariffs, energy prices, and valuation risks in AI tech stocks continue to weigh on market risk appetite. So, in my view, BTC is neither at a clear bottom nor has it achieved a true breakout to the upside. Key levels to watch next: $80K: The critical support for the medium-term uptrend. Holding this level could still open the door for a push toward $85K–$87.5K. $84K: A key resistance near the descending trendline. Only a breakout with strong volume can confirm that the bulls have regained control. On the flip side, if the daily chart breaks below $80K decisively, especially if a rebound fails to reclaim it, we need to be cautious of another retest of $75K–$78K. I think the short-term trend leans toward consolidation and recovery, but I wouldn’t rush to bet on a unilateral rally. The third retest of the trendline could be an opportunity—or a trap. What truly matters isn’t how many times the support is tested, but whether the bulls can push the price to higher levels after each test. This battle around $80K could very well determine the trajectory for the second half of October.