qinbafrank|Oct 16, 2026 05:43
It should have been the time to reinforce expectations for an October rate hike, but Walsh didn’t do that. During today’s fireside chat with the IMF President in Bangkok, Thailand, Walsh mentioned that the remaining two FOMC meetings in 2026 will be key moments for forming clear policy judgments. Given the strong September CPI and PPI data from the past two days, everyone was hoping to glean from Walsh’s speech whether there’s a sense of 'urgency for a rate hike.' However, he didn’t say things like 'inflation risks are intensifying, further action may be needed, or inflation expectations cannot be allowed to spiral out of control.' Instead, he grouped the October and December FOMC meetings together, deliberately leaving room for flexibility. Personally, I think this hints at his inclination to hold off in October and possibly hike again in December.
As for AI, his exact words were: 'The advent of this new technology is probably the most consequential change to America and the global economy in my lifetime.'
He believes that artificial intelligence will greatly benefit the U.S. economy in the future, as the country is currently in the midst of a massive investment boom. AI will help central banks analyze data more effectively, transform the real economy, boost productivity, and create wealth. However, he also warned that 'the path … is likely to be a very bumpy one.'
At a time when there are concerns in the modern market about AI development, Walsh’s statement carries significant weight.
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