Annie 所长|Oct 15, 2026 14:33
If the AI foam bursts, which of the 10 US stocks will collapse first?
1. NVIDIA NVDA
The risk is that it is no longer just selling chips, but also deeply tied to the financing and computing power procurement of some AI infrastructure projects. Once the funding chain of downstream computing companies encounters problems, Nvidia may also be backfired.
2. Google GOOGL
No matter how large the investment in AI infrastructure is, there is no panic. Advertising, cloud computing, YouTube can all make money, and there is still a large amount of net cash in hand. When the AI foam bursts, it may fall with the market, but it is not easy to break muscles and bones.
3. Microsoft MSFT
AI investment is huge, but Azure cloud business and enterprise software can continue to provide cash flow and have strong risk resistance. What needs to be wary of is the deep binding with OpenAI, as well as data center depreciation and huge capital expenditures.
4. Amazon AMZN
This year's AI infrastructure investment is expected to reach up to 220 billion US dollars, with an astonishing burning speed, but AWS, advertising, and e-commerce are all sources of cash flow. Even if AI investment cools down, the subsequent budget can still be adjusted.
5. Meta META
The ability to make money is not a problem, the real risk lies in the increasing investment in AI infrastructure. It does not have public cloud businesses of the same scale as Microsoft and Amazon, and if monetization cannot keep up, the return on capital may decrease.
6. Broadcom AVGO
High customer concentration is a hidden danger. Once a few customers reduce their orders, the growth rate may suddenly slow down, depending on the degree of customer dependence and order sustainability.
7. Micron MU
Storage chips are a typical cyclical industry, but the HBM demand brought by AI and long-term procurement contracts can provide some support for it.
8. AMD AMD
The valuation has already taken into account many expectations, and some major clients have obtained warrants to purchase AMD stocks, which is equivalent to suppliers driving customer purchases through equity incentives.
9. CoreWeave CRWV
It borrows money to buy GPUs, builds computing power, and then rents the computing power to AI companies. Its business model heavily relies on a few large customers making continuous payments. Once GPU rental prices fall, equipment utilization decreases, revenue decreases, and financing and debt pressures continue to rise.
10. Bloom Energy BE
73% of its quarterly revenue comes from a single customer, and its stock price has risen sharply before, making its valuation not cheap. If major clients reduce their purchases, the company may face a dual blow to both performance and valuation.
Behind the AI feast, it's clear who's swimming naked!
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