Based on the current development of AI, the most likely scenario for its profound impact on society is neither a completely equal "Hayek style utopia" nor a purely authoritarian "digital Leviathan", but rather an "inverted pyramid style neo feudal stratification". This structure is a forced combination of Popper's evolutionary trial and error, Hayek's marginal spontaneous order, and Peter Thiel's monopolistic realism at different physical levels. The most likely development pattern can be clearly divided into three levels (as shown in the figure): Top level: The "new feudal monopoly" of computing power and energy, because the training cost of Frontier Models will not decrease due to "open source diffusion", but instead become the "Manhattan Project" that only the will of the state and a few trillion level oligarchs can afford due to approaching physical limits (gigawatt level nuclear energy supply, customized optical interconnection, hundreds of thousands of high-level computing power clusters). Digital rent and sovereign alliance: Top oligarchs no longer need to directly control every terminal application, they become digital lords providing the 'underlying intelligence utility'. As predicted by Peter Thiel, this level completely eliminates blind competition and instead deeply binds to the national security machinery (such as Palantir and the Pentagon's cooperation model), monopolizing the most lethal real intervention capabilities (military industry, geopolitical intelligence, bio synthesis, and dominant computing). Middle Level: The Collapse of the Middle Class and the Prosperity of the "Micro Hayek Network" (Partial Implementation of Hayek) The death of knowledge intermediaries: Middle level institutions that relied on "information asymmetry" and "standardized processes" in the past (such as legal compliance, primary financial analysis, conventional software outsourcing, and even middle management) will be largely dismantled. The outbreak of spontaneous order: Individuals or extremely small teams of 3-5 people with AI leverage can mobilize productivity that could only be achieved by hundreds of people in the past. As Hayek observed, the scattered local aesthetics, non-standard needs, and interpersonal trust within individuals are thoroughly activated, giving rise to an extremely large, dynamic, and flexible 'super freelance/micro enterprise ecosystem'. However, this is a 'prosperity without pricing power': these micro entities fiercely compete at the application layer (fully in line with Thiel's assertion that 'competition belongs to losers'), ultimately squeezing out all excess profits, and most of the surplus value they create is pumped up to the top through' API call fees, cloud infrastructure rent '. Bottom layer: Deterioration of cognitive environment and blunting of democratic error correction mechanisms (Popper's most concerning challenge) The 'disaster of relativism' of facts: Popper's open society is built on 'rational criticism and factual falsification'. But when locally deployed open-source AI can generate perfectly realistic images, text, and sound at zero cost, the common reality foundation of the public is completely eroded. Tribal retreat: Faced with the torrent of content generated by algorithms, humans will accelerate their retreat to "modern tribes" composed of blood ties, fanatical beliefs, or closed circles in order to protect themselves. Rational criticism gives way to identity recognition, which is precisely the return of the closed society that Popper was wary of throughout his life. From the perspective of the evolution of reality, it may go through three stages. Phase 1: White collar "ladder style clearance" and cost arbitrage (currently occurring) Enterprises are using AI to reduce the cost of primary intellectual labor, leading to a surge in overall productivity indicators. However, the proportion of wage income to GDP is declining, and the rate of return on capital far exceeds the rate of return on labor. The performance of open-source models is gradually approaching that of previous generations of closed source models, leading to a widespread optimistic illusion of "equalization". Phase 2: The "High Wall Construction" of Sovereignty and Giants (in the Next 1-3 Years) With the breakthrough of cutting-edge intelligence to the ability to autonomously perform real-world physical tasks (network attacks, material and pathogen inference), regulation under the guise of "national security" and "biosecurity" has been comprehensively tightened. Frontier computing power is subject to export controls and physical monitoring similar to nuclear materials, and the underlying "physical monopoly" and civil "application equality" have officially achieved legal and institutional separation. Phase Three: "Trial and Error Hard Landing" of the System (Next 3-7 Years) With high unemployment, the traditional modern welfare state financial system, which relies on "labor income tax," has stagnated. Society is forced to carry out Popper style "fragmented social engineering repairs": universal basic income (UBI) is forced to be put on the agenda; Democratic voting revolves around a fierce game of wealth redistribution. Standing in the long river of history, we may witness an unprecedented release of individual freedom and creativity, the failure of centralized bureaucratic plans, and unprecedented spontaneous collaborative networks; But this prosperity may not lead to a utopia of equality. The monopoly of computing power at the bottom and the stronger Matthew effect brought by AI, combined with brutal geopolitical games, are the biggest enemies of romanticism for digital equality; History will not come to a Fukuyama style end, and AI will not provide the ultimate answer. Instead, it may create deeper institutional crises; Whether humans can live in an open society still depends on whether we can maintain a rationality - neither blindly believing in the omniscient algorithm Leviathan, nor giving up the constitutional error correction mechanism of small step trial and error. But in the upcoming era where everyone is watching AI short videos, it's not easy