Even though the CPI data is a total mess, the probability of a rate hike in October has been pushed up to 48%. Before the data release, the probability was only 20%. That said, I still don’t think the chances of a rate hike in October are that high. It’s only been a little over a month since the last hike, and there’s not enough decision-making data to justify it yet. Another hike might carry more risks than benefits in fighting inflation. Plus, with rates already this high, further hikes won’t have much impact on inflation but could have long-term effects on the economy. Once rates go up, it’s not that easy to bring them back down. As a result of everyone voting with their real money, Polymarket shows a 61% probability of no rate hike in October. No hike is still the leading scenario.