If the Fed is determined to base its decision on September CPI data and look for evidence to hold off on rate hikes, then this might be it. According to BLS Table 3 (Special Aggregate Indexes): 1) All items less food, shelter, and energy (index excluding food, housing, and energy): YoY about +2.0%, MoM about 0.3–0.4%. 2) All items less food, shelter, energy, and used cars and trucks (index excluding food, housing, energy, and used cars): YoY about +2.3%, MoM about 0.3–0.4%. This "super core" (a stricter measure excluding housing and used cars from the non-housing core portion) is indeed relatively mild, close to or only slightly above the 2% target range, and significantly lower than the overall core CPI's YoY of 2.6%. It indicates: 1) Core inflation pressure outside of housing is not strong; 2) After excluding energy shocks and some used car fluctuations, the "cleaner" price pressure remains controllable; 3) Housing is a lagging indicator (rent and OER reflect past lease contracts), and energy is highly volatile. Excluding these factors provides a better reflection of the current underlying trend. Fed officials (especially those more focused on "sticky service inflation") do indeed look at indicators like core services ex-shelter (super core services). The current non-housing portion is more moderate, suggesting inflation pressure is more concentrated in energy and lagging housing components, rather than broadly spreading. This reduces the urgency of "inflation is spreading widely, and we need to hike rates again immediately." The Fed pays more attention to PCE rather than CPI: CPI and PCE differ in weighting and coverage (PCE is usually slightly lower). September PCE data won’t be released until the end of the month, so the market and officials will focus more on the transmission from PPI to PCE. Tomorrow’s PPI data will also be critical.