Multi dimensional analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) stock: Near 226, interest rates are the pressure, buybacks are the support, maintaining a narrow range oscillation pattern! 1. The core contradiction is that the 30-year US Treasury bond is 5.5%, but Nvidia has already "decoupled" from interest rates. On October 6th, the 30-year US Treasury bond broke through 5.7% in intraday trading, the highest since 2002, and on the same day, the Nasdaq index hit a new historical high. The correlation coefficient between the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped to -0.13, approaching no correlation. Compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average's -0.41, interest rates still suppress traditional value stocks, but are no longer the main contradiction for AI semiconductors. Nvidia fell 1.29% to close at 226.32 last night, and the reason for the decline was not interest rates, but the collective collapse of the storage and optical communication sectors. Micron fell 3.88%, SK Hynix fell 4.02%, SanDisk fell 5.97%, and Lumentum fell nearly 10%. What the market is truly concerned about is the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. The CEO of Broadcom and the CEO of Intel discussed AI investment returns in Singapore on the same day, raising questions about whether they can earn back after burning money. 2. Nvidia's fundamentals have not changed. FY2027 Q2 revenue of 96.2 billion (+106%), Q3 guidance of 108 billion exceeded expectations. Huang Renxun said that the demand growth is close to 100%, and only about 70% can be supplied. Vera Rubin has entered full-scale production, with a revenue opportunity of approximately $40 billion per gigawatt, which is 1.6 times that of Blackwell. In terms of valuation, Nvidia's forward PE is about 19-20 times, lower than the 19.4 times of the S&P 500. A company with a revenue growth rate close to 100% has a valuation in its historical low range. The market is already pricing it with the expectation of a 'slowdown in growth'. 3. From a technical perspective, the price fluctuates up and down in the upward channel shown in the following chart. Recently, there has been a lot of regularity. However, the price is currently facing a lower boundary test, but it has not been terminated. 226-228 US dollars is the early support conversion zone and also the current position for long and short positions. Hold on, the channel structure is still effective; If it falls below (weekly closing confirmed), look at 217-220. 4. The good news for Nvidia is that a $235 billion buyback has been initiated. On September 28th, an additional authorization of 150 billion yuan was granted, bringing the total amount to 235 billion yuan, the largest scale in the history of American enterprises. Last quarter, we repurchased 19.7 billion yuan and plan to complete it before January 2028. Huang Renxun's original words: "Cash flow enables us to invest in technology while returning to shareholders Xiaolong's final judgment: Interest rates are noise, not signals. The real risk is the collective killing of AI hardware valuation and the collective braking of cloud vendors' capital expenditures, which have not yet occurred. Near $226, repurchase is the bottom, not the top. In the short term, the stock price of Nvidia is likely to continue to fluctuate narrowly within the upward channel. However, from the volume price chart, it can be seen that there is a deviation between volume and price. Once unfavorable factors arise, the price will fall below the lower boundary of the upward channel and drop above $210.