Wintermute: Bitcoin loses support from capital inflows, cautious view of altcoins in the short term BlockBeats news, on October 13, Wintermute sent a document saying that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most officials expected to raise interest rates again this year, the market's pricing probability for the interest rate increase at the end of October was about 20%, and the yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond rose to 5.24%. In this context, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% last week and reached a historic high, while the cryptocurrency market performed weakly. The rise in the US stock market was supported by expectations of corporate profit growth, while the cryptocurrency market lacks similar profit support and relies more on new capital inflows; With the reversal of capital flow, the six week counter trend upward momentum of cryptocurrency assets is difficult to sustain. Bitcoin fell from around $86000 to $87000 last week, briefly dropping to around $80400 on Thursday before rebounding above $83000 and returning to the high point of the $82500 range. The net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETF last week was about 679 million US dollars, the largest weekly outflow since late June, while the net outflow of Ethereum ETF was about 542 million US dollars. The crypto market has lost the support of capital inflows, while the US stock market still has the support of earnings growth. Therefore, in the short term, only when the yield of long-term treasury bond bonds has stabilized and the spot ETF funds have returned to net inflows will the market continue to be bullish. Until these two conditions are met, Bitcoin remains an asset that is more sensitive to fluctuations in the US stock market and carries higher downside risks. It is not recommended to chase after low-quality altcoins. If the 30-year US Treasury yield breaks through the 5.64% hit on September 30th, or if Bitcoin's continued rebound around $82500 is hindered, Wintermute will turn cautious. This week, we need to focus on the US September CPI data released on Wednesday to determine whether energy inflation is spreading towards core inflation, while also paying attention to the financial performance of financial institutions and AI related companies. [Original link]