金色财经
金色财经|10月 13, 2026 07:46
[Morgan Stanley: Samsung's Q3 Operating Profit of $81.3 Billion Ranks First Globally, Suggests Underweighting Memory Stocks] According to a report by Jinse Finance on October 13, Morgan Stanley believes that demand from AI data centers is driving the memory industry into a structural uptrend. Long-term contracts and price floors have altered the industry's risk profile, but a supercycle does not mean the disappearance of cyclicality, as new supply will eventually emerge. The report highlights that Samsung Electronics' Q3 2026 operating profit is estimated at $81.3 billion, surpassing NVIDIA's $71.6 billion, making it the most profitable company globally. Samsung and SK Hynix's stock prices have fallen about 35% from their peaks, with forward P/E ratios of only 3 to 4 times, as the market continues to price them under the old cyclical framework. The report also notes that the HBM market is expected to triple to $100 billion by 2028, with industry capacity sold out years in advance and most under long-term contracts. Supply shortages are not expected before 2027. In China, Yangtze Memory Technologies holds approximately 12% to 13% of the global NAND market share, while ChangXin Memory Technologies accounts for about 20% of the HBM market share in China. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley suggests underweighting memory stocks and overweighting AI computing and networking. Top picks in the computing sector include NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom, Marvell, and GUC. On pricing, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, while NAND prices are expected to increase by 15% to 20%.
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