Gas prices and votes—will the Democrats dominate this midterm election? Goldman Sachs shared this chart comparing the Democrats' lead in generic ballots with the average U.S. retail gas prices: the Democrats' lead expanded gradually after the Iran war caused gas prices to spike, and recently, the two data sets have been moving in the same direction. Interestingly, gas prices seem to be giving a slight leading signal. Currently, prediction markets are showing a high probability of a Democratic sweep in the midterms, making it the baseline scenario for evaluating the election structure. However, Goldman Sachs recently issued two historical warnings worth noting: 1) The probability of a challenger party sweep tends to narrow before election day. Goldman Sachs reviewed midterm elections from 2002, 2006, 2010, 2018, and 2022, finding that "the probability of a challenger party sweep decreases by an average of about 5 percentage points before election day." Using the current 63% probability of a Democratic sweep as a baseline, historical trends suggest the final probability may drop to around 58%—still likely, but with significantly less comfort. 2) Polls in red states historically overestimate Democratic performance. Goldman Sachs mapped Senate polling errors against state party leanings, discovering that "midterm polls tend to underestimate Democrats in Democratic-leaning states and underestimate Republicans in Republican-leaning states," aligning with the pattern of voters "returning to their party" late in the election cycle. This trend is even more pronounced in recent data, and this time, the battle for Senate majority hinges on those red states. Another point: Republicans lagged behind Democrats in Senate campaign spending all summer but recently overtook them and have continued to widen the gap. Over the past two weeks, Republicans spent $240 million, while Democrats spent $130 million—Republican spending was about 1.85 times that of Democrats. If gas prices and inflation have such a significant impact on election outcomes, what Trump needs most is a tank of cheap gas. Suppressing gas prices before midterm voting day has become a top priority. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh: "Bitget—Buy U.S. stocks: instant entry, seamless trading.