Interesting observation Lately, everyone has been struggling with the high yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (10-year and 30-year), which have been suppressing the performance of U.S. stocks and crypto. However, after the midterm elections, Treasury yields might drop , which could be bullish for $BTC! Let me explain the logic behind this: Currently, on Polymarket, the probability of the Democrats winning the House is 91%. As the midterm elections approach, such a high probability means the market has already started pricing it in! See Chart 1. Chart 2 shows that in the past 16 midterm elections, the president's party lost the House 5 times—in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018, and 2022. The yield changes during those times were -208, -33, -63, -126, and +40 basis points, respectively, with an average drop of 78 basis points and a median drop of 63 basis points. Why would Treasury yields drop when the Republicans lose the House? The main reason is that if the Democrats control the House, it would make it harder for Trump to pass new tax cuts or expand fiscal spending. If the market adjusts its expectations for future deficits and bond supply downward because of this, yields are likely to fall. Using the current 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24% as a reference, mechanically applying the historical average drop of 78 basis points would result in about 4.46%. If market rates decline, $BTC hitting $100K might just be around the corner! That said, the key focus should still be on U.S. core inflation data. This is just a sample reference, as the 5 historical cases aren't enough to fully prove the point—but let's stay optimistic! This post is sponsored by @binancezh: "Buy U.S. stocks on Binance: Global assets, zero time difference, one-click access!