Starting from the peak of CPI in mid-2022 Market expectation of interest rate hike temporarily postponed End of bear market By early 2023, the market has begun to anticipate interest rate cuts Bull market officially begins This bull market has actually been going on for nearly 3 years When the interest rate was cut in August last year The pancake can no longer rise Wait until two consecutive interest rate cuts occur The pancake hasn't reached a new high yet I suspect that the bull market may be coming to an end Indeed, the pancake circle has reached the top But it's the same as before The US stock market is the periphery of the brain and the limbs When the limbs are ischemic, the priority supply is to the brain So the US stock market still maintained a continued upward trend Over the past year or so CPI did not decrease as expected by the Federal Reserve The repeated wars between the US and Iran have been sawing oil prices The US economy is driven by large investments in the AI industry Growth shows very strong performance Although Trump found a "man of his own" to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve Desire for the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates But the result is still that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates ahead of schedule And there are hidden concerns about the huge investment in AI Can these investments ultimately make money The arrival of 312 after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 Several circuit breakers hit the market to the bottom At that time, I shouted 'buy the bottom, Nasdaq buy the bottom, TSLA' It did indeed skyrocket afterwards But that was the stimulus of the super strong epidemic and the release of water Does anyone remember what the taste of the US stock market was from the end of 2019 to March 2020 At the end of 2019, my US stock market did not have QQ But I remember that Nasdaq was constantly rising at that time I had a full inventory of TSLA at that time I remember a friend called me to short NASDAQ at that time I didn't follow along either I'm just holding TSLA I kind of forgot the reason he gave for shorting at that time If there were no epidemic Is there a crash of 312? My idea is Without an epidemic, there would be other factors that could trigger it Gunpowder had already been filled up in the room It just lacks a flame to ignite it Especially in the current market Why? Because: The entire market is now investing in the Nasdaq index Especially for large A-share investors The farthest distance from NASDAQ in the global market is actually the Chinese people This is a very dangerous signal Although I have mentioned multiple times that if you bought Nasdaq in 1999 Actually, it takes 14-15 years to unravel the situation And even the bottom end investors are starting to feel that the Nasdaq is stable When the myth of Nasdaq's earnings began This is already a serious risk warning In 2022, I repeatedly called out on Weibo to invest in the NASDAQ index Up to now, it has doubled At that time, no one bought it But this year is quite strange A bunch of people around me came to ask me I want to invest in NASDAQ now This group of people are theoretically the 'bottom end buyers' of assets This bull market has been going on for quite a long time So much so that everyone forgot about the sustained interest rate hikes in 2022 How did the market plummet The market is clearly not prepared for sustained interest rate hikes at the moment Many people's positions are still inside I am also unwilling to believe that the bull market will end with sustained interest rate hikes If there were no US Iran War In fact, the interest rate cut in the market this year should be very fast There will be fewer bull market relays There are no deep pits like those in April Then the interest rate fell low enough The market has also rapidly risen to a high enough level Then there will be more issues before entering the next interest rate hike cycle But now the adjustment cycle from interest rate cuts to interest rate hikes Too brief Actually, I didn't realize it either Why did you just raise interest rates once And it seems that there will be continued interest rate hikes? My original plan was for 2025-2027 The Federal Reserve's inflation reduction plan is very perfect Gradually lowering interest rates At this stage, USDC continues to issue more shares But CRCL's revenue continues to decline and its stock price plummets The cost of buying crcl through regular investment continues to increase If we enter a one-year interest rate hike cycle now Completely disrupted this market rhythm If the market has increased interest rates since the last time Continued interest rate hikes may last for 6-12 months The US Iran conflict continues but does not escalate, and oil prices remain high CPI continues to rise What will happen in this market What will ignite the gunpowder and explode in the end? Obviously At the current market pace I don't think it's understandable to buy Nasdaq or make a regular investment It may be necessary to retain 30-40% of the cash position Dealing with subsequent risks The biggest risk is the uncertainty of interest rate hikes Previously, we discussed when interest rates would drop to a low level The end of the bull market Actually, interest rate hikes have already begun now The market is discussing how much to raise interest rates When will the interest rate hike end One possibility is that CPI has been unable to hit Because oil prices cannot come down Oil prices cannot come down Because Mei Yi has been consuming And AI investment cannot stop yet Need continuous financing But the interest rate cost in the market is also very high In the short term, AI investment has not yet achieved a complete cycle of profitability Causing the market to collapse and explode Perhaps it's the debt pressure of tech giants And financial pressure In fact, including Tencent in the Hong Kong stock market The operating cash flow has already started to turn negative But everyone is still far from truly making super money What's even more frightening is that it's unclear at what stage one can stop investing The financing cost is still getting higher and higher The debt burden that has already been borrowed will continue to increase Every giant is following the path of US Treasury bonds I don't have any conclusion at the moment I'm just thinking Record the process of this thinking