陈桂林|10月 09, 2026 13:06
Two judgments remain unchanged:
1. Previously, I mentioned that long-term bond yields were approaching a turning point. Now, I believe long-term bond yields may have already reached that turning point.
2. Crude oil is trending downward.
What’s confusing me right now:
Just one thing: the part that’s making me hesitate; (see image 2, the one I posted this morning) I personally think the probability of $BTC following the black line is higher than it directly following the green line. In other words, $BTC is currently just in a rebound phase, and after the rebound, there’s likely another drop that will break below 80K and scare a bunch of people. (As long as it stays above 75K, it’s still considered a mild horizontal adjustment.)
But this conflicts with the judgments above.
Confusion is confusion, hesitation is hesitation; the main strategy of holding spot positions without moving remains unchanged and cannot change. This only affects when the flexible position can increase leverage to enter the market.
Backup plan: If I really can’t figure it out, then I’ll just treat the flexible position as a spot position and enter at 1.x leverage; DCA on the way down.
PS: Flexible position x1 + full spot position = full position; the ideal play for a good opportunity is full spot position + flexible position x3–x10 + flexible position for free swings.
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