彼得兔|Oct 09, 2026 02:59
Back on March 1, 2026, I mentioned that the major uptrend for gold had come to an end. What followed was a monthly-level correction, and I shared the expected trajectory in Chart 1. After that, XAU dropped from 5419 to 3942 as predicted.
On July 30, 2026, I clearly stated that the first wave of weekly-level decline had ended, and a weekly rebound was about to begin. Subsequently, gold rose from 3942 to 4697.
What’s the outlook now? Could 3942-4697 just be part of a rebound, with another wave to follow?
In last Sunday’s video, we discussed that if there’s another rebound of the same level as 3942-4697, then the move starting from 4697 would be a correction. If it’s a correction, it shouldn’t break below the 4015-4030 range. This week, we saw gold reverse sharply at 4066 above 4030, which is a positive sign.
The key observation point is at 4228. Breaking through this level would indicate that the correction might have ended at 4066. The 4308 level represents the Fibonacci 0.382 position of the 4697-4066 move. Breaking and holding above 4308 would confirm the end of the correction. Under this scenario, the rise starting from 4066 would be of the same daily-level magnitude as 3942-4697.
From a broader perspective, gold is still in a monthly-level adjustment phase. The ongoing tracking of gold isn’t just about finding swing trade opportunities but also about staying sensitive to its market movements, which helps improve trading skills.
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