Core reasons for BTC's bottoming out in this round of decline and deduction of ultimate target price 1、 The core reasons for this round of decline are macro dominance, funding confirmation, and technological acceleration. This round of decline is not due to a single factor, nor is it a fundamental problem with BTC itself. But it is a high-risk asset with high volatility, precisely hit on the transmission chain of "oil price → inflation → interest rate → liquidity". ① Macro level (root cause): Double kill of oil prices and interest rates. The situation in the Middle East has escalated, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Brent crude oil has broken through $104, and inflation stickiness expectations have been strengthened. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting were hawkish, with most members supporting another rate hike before the end of the year. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5.36%, and the yield of 30-year bonds rose to 5.73%, both reaching new highs since 2002. The opportunity cost of interest free assets has risen to a 23 year high, and the valuation of risk assets has been systematically compressed. The core is that refusing to lower long-term interest rates is equivalent to tightening liquidity. This explains why the two major positive factors of PCE and non farm payroll cannot be pulled back, as they are offset by long-term interest rates. ② On the financial level (with the disappearance of driving force): ETF buying plummeted and reversed. On October 7th, the daily net outflow was 487.9 million US dollars, the largest since June 25th. BlackRock's IBIT outflow was 207.7 million, and this divestment erased the net inflow of 321.6 million accumulated in the first four trading days of October. ETF buying was the core driving force behind BTC's rise from 75K to 87K in September, but now this driving force has suddenly disappeared. ③ Technical aspect (accelerator): 88K triple resistance. The average cost in 2025 will be around 88K, rebounding here, and buyers will concentrate on selling and unwinding in 2025. 87K-88K is the position where four attempts to top have failed in the past two weeks (87396/87220/86999/87220), and it has been hit back each time. The large cycle Fib 0.618 is at 84283, unable to hold steady and has already fallen below, with weakened momentum. ④ The inherent negative feedback loop of Bitcoin. Price decline → bulls liquidated → liquidation generates additional selling pressure → price further declines. More than $650 million in leveraged positions were forcefully liquidated, with the vast majority being long positions betting on an upward trend. ⑤ On chain data: There were no giant whales smashing the market, but there was also no strong takeover. The trend of giant whales depositing on the exchange has stopped (ending in late August), and the maximum selling pressure has stalled. Exchange reserves hit a 3-year low (approximately 2.68 million BTC), and the supply side is tightening. Glassnode has marked large buy orders around 81000, which is currently the largest buying wall. But there was no "signal of complete surrender" or strong takeover on the chain. Key point: This round is not driven by the supply side (Giant Whale did not hit the market), but by insufficient demand (short-term profit taking and ETF withdrawal). A decline is a 'disappearance of buying', not a 'wave of selling'. 2、 Multi dimensional technical position of three-dimensional integrated trading system Key support chain: The first support is around 80K, based on the overlap of small period Fib 0.236 (80500) and medium period Fib 2.272 (79800), with a strength of three stars. The second support is at 77K, which is the weekly MA50, also known as the bullish trend line, with a strength of four stars. The third support is between 71K and 69K, where the large period Fib 0.5 (71150) and small period Fib 0.382 (69146) overlap, with a strength of four stars. There is also a position in the middle at 73500, corresponding to a mid cycle Fib 1.618 with a strength of three stars. Key resistance: 87K-88K is a cost plus top failure with strong resistance. 84283 is a large cycle Fib 0.618, which has fallen below and turned into resistance. 82500-83600 is short-term rebound pressure. 3、 The ultimate target price for subsequent Bitcoin price decline Three scenario deduction: The first type is shallow callback. The target is around 80K, based on a small cycle of 0.236 plus Fib 2.272 overlap, with a probability of 30%. The second type is a callback. Target 77K, based on weekly MA50, with a probability of 40%. The third type is the ultimate callback. Target 70K to 71K, based on the overlap of large period Fib 0.5 and small period Fib 0.382, with a probability of 25%. The fourth scenario is extreme. Target 65000 to 66500, based on a 200 week moving average with a probability of 5%. The ultimate target price is between 70000 and 71150, with two cycles of Fib overlap. But this is the deepest scenario, with a 25% probability, requiring significant macro bearish sentiment. The most likely target is around 77K, with a weekly MA50 and a 40% probability. Due to the improvement in the supply side (the whale has stopped hitting and reserves have hit a new low), there is no sustained selling pressure, and the foundation for deep decline is weak. The weekly MA50 is a bull market trend line, a classic position confirmed by retracement. 70K requires sustained macro deterioration (continued surge in long-term interest rates+continuous outflow of ETFs) to reach. 4、 Final core judgment Core Conclusion: This round of decline is a triple resonance of macro dominance (oil prices+interest rates), fund confirmation (ETF withdrawal), and technical acceleration (88K resistance), not a fundamental issue with BTC. Key difference: A decline is a "buying disappearance" (demand side), not a "selling wave" (supply side). On the contrary, the supply side is tightening, the giant whale has stopped smashing, and reserves are at a new low. Three key judgments: Short term (1-2 weeks): The price is repeatedly tested around 80K, and there is a possibility of testing around 77K (MA50). Mid term (January March): 77K (weekly MA50) is a key watershed. If you hold on, the bull market will continue; if it falls below, look at 70K. Ultimate goal: 70K-71K, with two cycles of Fib overlapping. But it needs to continue to deteriorate macroscopically, with a probability of 25%. Reverse condition: The decline in 10-year US Treasury yields is the core. ETFs continue to flow in, with demand taking over. The situation in the Middle East has eased and oil prices have fallen. 5、 Operational discipline Currently around 80K, observe, do not buy at the bottom, wait for signals of volume stabilization. If you can't resist buying at the bottom, take a small position. 77K（MA50）， Focus on long areas and bullish trend lines. 70K-71K， Ultimate long zone. If it arrives, heavy storage. Core discipline: Do not easily buy at the bottom, wait for signals of increasing volume and stabilizing.