Killa
Killa|Oct 08, 2026 21:07
A lot of people are posting previous cycle corrections as though Bitcoin is guaranteed to mirror them perfectly. That is a big mistake. This cycle is different, whether people like it or not. We have retraced roughly 50% of the entire bear market decline, something we have never seen before. Add in the largest short-liquidation event from 62K to 80K, and the context is completely different. You cannot compare cycles that saw 77–80% drawdowns and then expect the same depth of corrections now. We bottomed around -54%. That materially changes the scale of pullbacks we should expect throughout the bull market. The implication is simple: corrections are likely to be shallower than in previous cycles. Expecting identical downside because an old fractal looks similar is the same linear thinking that had people convinced Bitcoin would follow the exact same cycle pattern forever. I was one of the first to recognise that the cycles were speeding up, meaning an earlier bottom, and positioned accordingly. Posting a fractal without accounting for the wider context is narrow minded analysis. In 2023, BTC dropped 77%. During the recovery from 16K to 69K, the deepest correction was roughly 21%. This cycle, BTC only dropped 54%, around one third less severe. Applying that same logic, a 21% correction reduced by one-third would put the largest pullback closer to 14%. A 14% drop from the 87K highs puts BTC almost precisely at 75K. And thats if we get the full blown corrrection from 87K. It could be from 95K down to 80K. It's to soon to say. So even in a full-scale correction from here, we are only around 6% away from that level. Are you really willing to miss a potential 60% move higher because you are waiting for an extra 6% lower? I wouldn’t be. Larger capital clearly isn’t either. I still believe the 92-95K region is where we could see a more meaningful, broader correction, but it may simply take time to get there. For those still waiting on 70K: based on the maths, the context, and the way this cycle has behaved, there is a real chance we never see it again. Even another test of 75K would be a gift. You need to adjust your mindset if you expect corrections to mirror prior cycles. This cycle has already been structurally different from the moment it bottomed. This is Wall Street’s asset now.
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