jasonleo|10月 08, 2026 18:12
This time during the pullback, what I’m most focused on isn’t how much it dropped, but:
Why it only dropped this much.
There’s been quite a bit of macro-level bearish news recently.
30-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearing 5.7%, and the 10-year is hovering around 5.3%; expectations for another rate hike this year are strengthening; oil prices and inflation pressures are rising again; and the suspected plague incident in Russia has stirred up some panic.
In the past, any one of these pieces of news alone would’ve been enough to send $BTC into a significant drop.
Now, with multiple bearish factors coming out at once, $BTC has only pulled back by about 5%.
That’s why I’ve always believed:
News is just surface-level; the price’s reaction to the news is the real information.
Most people trading are actually driven by emotions.
When prices rise, all they see is bullish news; when prices fall, all they see is bearish news.
But only a small number of people can sift through all the noise and find the truly valuable information.
“All phenomena are illusions.”
When bearish news keeps piling up, but the price becomes increasingly resistant to dropping, that in itself says something.
This situation is somewhat similar to the $58K level last time, but not entirely the same.
At $58K, it was after extreme pessimism that the market started showing signs of being unable to sell off further.
Now, it’s during a strong trend, with macro pressures continuously mounting, yet the price still hasn’t been truly broken.
So at the moment, I don’t think this will directly drop to $7.8K, and I definitely don’t think it’ll hit $7.4K.
But trading isn’t about proving you’re always right.
If it breaks below $7.9K, I’ll start reducing my position.
If the daily close breaks below $7.8K, I’ll exit all remaining long positions.
If it doesn’t break, I’ll continue holding.
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