TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Oct 08, 2026 16:39
The most valuable info I got from attending the conference these past few days is that this recent drop in $BTC is indeed caused by the U.S. government selling off crypto. Based on past experiences, governments usually sell crypto either because they think the price is good or they need to raise funds. Following this logic, if we look back, the rally starting from $65,000 was likely driven by market anticipation of a bull run. That said, we’re still in a rate hike cycle, with at least two more hikes coming, totaling 50 basis points. One is expected in December, and the other likely in March next year. Plus, the U.S.-Iran war hasn’t ended yet, and inflation driven by oil prices shows no signs of easing. Until the market clearly starts pricing in the end of the rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle, we probably won’t see any strong unilateral trends. And if Trump loses both houses in the midterm elections, he could face impeachment risks. Even if he isn’t impeached, the debt ceiling issue will come up again early next year, requiring Congress to approve a new limit, which could spark another round of partisan battles. A major plot twist in the political drama. Also, it’s already October, and November is just around the corner, meaning the U.S. market will soon enter the holiday season until around New Year’s. After the Gregorian New Year, China will head into Lunar New Year, so the market will likely remain sluggish until February. On top of that, just looking at the current market structure, it’s clear we’ve hit a short-term top, and a significant correction is needed. This correction might just be getting started. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT, 10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, and enjoy dividend payouts.
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