How does the Federal Reserve view the AI infrastructure investment and bond issuance wave, as well as market trends? The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting released early this morning showed that members generally agreed on the need to further control inflation, but there were differences in the main logic of raising interest rates: some members emphasized the inflation risk caused by energy supply shocks; The other part focuses more on the strong demand itself. The overall message conveyed is that there is a strong consensus on interest rate hikes, but October is not urgent. In addition to opinions on inflation and interest rate trends, there are several points worth discussing separately: 1. AI investment has officially entered the Federal Reserve's aggregate demand analysis The minutes pointed out that the construction of AI infrastructure continues to support enterprise investment, and some members believe that the scale and speed of construction still exceed previous expectations. At the same time, some members are concerned that the growth of AI related demand may exceed the speed of economic supply expansion in the medium term, thereby driving up inflation. But committee members also believe that AI may improve long-term supply by increasing productivity and potential output in the future. These two judgments can hold true simultaneously. 1) Short term: The construction of AI data centers requires a large amount of equipment, electricity, construction, engineering personnel, and financing. 2) Medium to long term: AI deployment may improve labor productivity and capital efficiency of enterprises. The problem is that these two processes occur at different times. At present, the market can clearly see the former, while the scale and redemption time of the latter still need time. What is the logic behind the "Four Clocks" of AI investment that I previously discussed with the Fed? Https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/21037267599341444989? S=20 is highly consistent: capital investment, product revenue, enterprise deployment, and macro productivity improvement occur at different times. 2. The meeting minutes directly mentioned that AI companies are issuing bonds to promote long-term returns The open market operations department pointed out in the report that large-scale private sector debt issuance, especially for the financing needs of AI infrastructure construction, is one of the factors that the market believes is driving up long-term US bond yields and term premiums. The minutes also mentioned that the bonds issued by Hyperscale for financing AI infrastructure still have relatively wide spreads due to their large issuance scale and long maturity. This is very important. In the past, the market usually believed that: AI capital expenditure increased → demand for chips, equipment, and electricity increased → related companies' profits increased. Now the Federal Reserve has clearly recorded another transmission chain: AI capital expenditure increases → large-scale corporate bond issuance → competition for long-term capital → pressure on corporate credit spreads and US bond maturity premiums. As early as mid August, in the tweet "Structural Issues in the Era of Long term Debt and High School Pivot", https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2090435324765970902? We have also talked about s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A. This means that the AI investment cycle is affecting its own financing costs through the capital market. If AI technology infrastructure developers continue to engage in large-scale borrowing in the future, the response of the bond market may become increasingly important. 3. The Federal Reserve believes that the stock market's rise is mainly driven by profits The public market operations department mentioned in the minutes that the stock price increase this year is mainly attributed to actual and expected corporate profit growth, while the price to earnings ratio has decreased, which is a valuable market judgment. If this assessment holds true, then the rise in 2026 is becoming increasingly different from the typical liquidity driven valuation expansion market. The current main support comes from profit expectations. What we have been talking about recently is that the fundamentals of AI are very strong and have not weakened. 4. The Federal Reserve currently does not believe that there has been a systemic shortage in the capital market The minutes show that reserves are still in a sufficient range, the overall short-term financing market is stable, and the increase in supply of treasury bonds has been absorbed relatively smoothly. The New York Federal Reserve's open market operations department has suspended some reserve management purchases and emphasized that future adjustments will depend on reserve supply and demand. This information is important for judging US Treasury bonds. The increase in long-term bond yields does not automatically mean that there has been a liquidity crisis in the bank reserve or repo market, and it is still closer to the readjustment of asset long-term equilibrium prices. The implicit meaning is that the Federal Reserve's approach has not changed: it will only intervene when policy transmission is threatened, not just because yields are rapidly rising. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, "Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading