Whoa, something’s definitely off in the Middle East this time: the Pentagon has already ordered the U.S. military to complete preparations for large-scale operations against Iran The Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to finalize preparations for resuming major combat operations against Iran. Trump hasn’t given the final order yet, but last Friday, his national security team held a secret meeting at Camp David for several hours. U.S. and Israeli officials have even discussed the potential action window being before the U.S. midterm elections. On October 7, a senior advisor from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard openly declared they would block the Hormuz Strait on the Oman side, targeting those "illegal" alternative routes identified by Iran. These southern routes were originally designed to bypass Iranian control and keep Gulf oil flowing as much as possible. According to previous stats from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, under normal circumstances, the oil flow through Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global liquid oil consumption. If tanker routes are disrupted on a large scale again, oil prices, inflation, U.S. Treasury yields, and the Fed will all get dragged into the mess. Brent crude already surged past $101 during trading yesterday, and even the IEA is accelerating the release of strategic reserves to suppress oil prices. Impact on $BTC and U.S. stocks: Middle East escalation → Oil prices keep climbing → Inflation expectations rise → U.S. Treasury yields continue upward → Fed finds it harder to turn dovish. Last night, the FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, and now today the Pentagon has pushed Iran war preparations to this level. The biggest macro risk in October might now be whether the Middle East sends oil prices spiraling out of control again.