What cycle is the current market in as the rebound from the bottom has exceeded 50%? Some people are shouting 'bull', some are shouting 'bear market rebound', they are more brainless and lack rational and clear answers! Let me explain and provide some reference for future market validation! My conclusion: A strong recovery after a bear market is not yet a new bull market! Bitcoin: Native fell from $126000 to $58000, rebounded to $87000, and will still be treated in a bear market framework in 2026. $58000 is likely to be an important bottom, but the end of the cycle has not been fully confirmed. The maximum drawdown in this round is about 54%, and the adjustment time is shorter than in previous complete bear markets. ETFs have strengthened their commitment, which may make the bear market fall shallower, but what it changes is the depth of the drawdown, not the direct cancellation of the cycle. There is financial support, but it is not enough to take a long view with closed eyes. On the first four trading days of October, the total net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was about 322 million US dollars, and institutions did not leave; But compared to a single week exceeding $2 billion in late September, the willingness to chase prices has significantly decreased. The balance of BTC on the exchange has dropped to about 2.68 million, and the seller's chips are shrinking, which is an important support for the mid-term bottom at $58000. However, about 74% of the chips have returned to profitability, and long-term holders have also begun to cash in on the rebound. 85000-88000 US dollars is the first pressure, while 90000 to 96700 US dollars will determine whether this round of market can upgrade from repair to reversal. The macro environment also does not support BTC to directly enter a continuous main uptrend. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5.3%, oil prices are close to $100, and the risk of another interest rate hike at the end of the year has not disappeared. The Nasdaq can support BTC, but it cannot digest the trapped market above $90000. The main path for the next six months, I tend to: In October, we will first hit $88000-92000, and may test $96700 when our emotions are strongest, but the first breakthrough is likely to be difficult to hold steady. In the second half of the fourth quarter, there will be a rebound of 80000 to 82000 US dollars, and in extreme cases, a test of 76000 to 77000 US dollars. As long as the weekly line holds at 77000 US dollars, there is still a chance to challenge 96700 to 105000 US dollars in the first quarter of next year. Simply put, it means: first charge 90000, step back 80000, and then look at 100000. The true bull market confirmation is not when the price reaches $90000, but when the weekly line stabilizes at $96700-10000 and cannot be broken, while the ETF resumes continuous large inflows. At this stage, it is advisable to focus on long-term recovery, but do not mistake it for a main uptrend. The biggest fear of cyclical trading is not missing the lowest point, but misjudging the current market trend as a new bull market during the hottest rebound.